In 2021, a stable increase in demand for road freight as an alternative to the marine transport was observed worldwide. In China, their volume increased by 15.6% as compared to 2020 year on year, whereas in Russia it rose by 5.4%. In Europe, a 3.2% increase was noted in FTL transportation rates and the delivery of goods to multiple customers on board one vehicle. The increase in cost is explained by a shortage of available transport, as well as gasoline and diesel prices. In the RF, for the same reasons, as well as due to a lack of drivers, the average price of road transportation increased by 20%, and in key directions (Moscow – St. Petersburg) – by 50-100%.
The container crisis in early 2020 pushed the logistics industry to actively use the railroad. Thus, in Germany, the share of railway traffic is 36% of the total, and by 2030, according to the Minister of Transport of Germany, it will reach 80%. Russian Post continues to implement logistics solutions for the delivery of large and medium-sized cargo from Kaliningrad to Moscow by rail. In 2021, express container trains were launched from the capital of Russia to Yekaterinburg, Krasnoyarsk, Novosibirsk, Irkutsk, Khabarovsk, and Vladivostok.
China, the main player in the goods export market, is deliberately increasing railway traffic to Europe. China has increased investments in the development of railway infrastructure in the midst of the crisis in 2020 by 3.7%. About $375 billion of public funds were invested in road construction in China in 2021. China plans to recoup the investment, which is why, even after overcoming the container problems, it will continue to develop alternatives to marine routes for the delivery of goods to Europe.
Structural transformations of the freight market have had an adverse effect on their cost. The change in traditional logistics routes has led to an increase in tariffs. And this, in turn, will lead to an increase in prices for goods for the end user and the services of stevedoring companies (engaged in loading and unloading in ports).
ABIPA analysts predict a recovery in 2022 of the volume of traffic by sea, rail, and road, except for air, to the pre-pandemic level. Delivery of goods by air is directly related to the stabilization of air traffic between countries. Passenger traffic has not yet recovered due to COVID restrictions, which means that one cannot count on the active use of planes for transporting goods. A decrease in the cost of international delivery of goods to the tariffs of 2019 should not be expected, as well.
